The new development of the Russian-Ukrainian (NATO) conflict inevitably raises the question: “Who benefits from this action?” It makes little or no sense for the goals we have been told should be achieved by Kiev with NATO weapons, or to free Ukrainian territories by the Russian army. Invading with a thousand soldiers a few dozen square kilometers of a country that has several million has a war value insignificantjust as he doesn’t have what he says Zelensky: “Now let’s make the Russians feel what their war makes the Ukrainians feel.”
Therefore, to find an answer to the question “cui prodest?”, we need to go beyond the narrative that is given these days, retracing the path starting, as always, from the real objectives of the conflict. They are those declared by Joe Biden between March and May 2022: “there is a battle between democracy and autocracies (Russia and China) and democracy (USA) will prevail” and “we are at a inflection point which rarely occurs in history. There is a new world order that is being created and we will have to lead it.” In short, Russia must undergo a defeat such that it causes the Russian Federation to implode as happened in 1990 to the USSR.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the spark that had been awaited for decades. The Western reaction and the EU alignment are lightning-fast and follow the indications provided by the study commissioned by Washington to the Rand Co. in 2019 “Overextending and Unbalancing Russia”. The trade war in Moscow begins and Zelensky begins his pilgrimage to the sacred places of Western high finance and politics dressed as a lamb in gray-green, attacked by the war criminal and terrorist wolf. Ukraine begins to receive billions of dollars in weapons increasingly powerful and billions of dollars to prevent the country from collapsing. Within a year, Rand’s indications, which had become a strategy for “containment” of the Russian threat, were implemented.
NATO is being strengthened, but the Ukrainian army is starting to to trudge under the pressure of the Russian one. When we begin to have the certainty that the economic war against Russia and Ukraine alone, even if hyper-armed, will not achieve the objectives made in the USA, we change strategy: the NATO countries must also enter the conflict. First of all, we must guarantee safe money to NATO and shelter from the US political sphere: an objective achieved in July in Washington. Then we must prepare European citizens for war and therefore the European enemy must be created that is, Russia: an objective achieved by Ursula von der Leyen in her speech on February 28. Finally, Zelensky must be given the opportunity to create a condition that does not allow European countries and the EU to to back down at the right time. I believe that this is the “cui prodest” of the Ukrainian invasion of Russia and attacks on Russian territory with Western weapons.
The operation was successful and now Zelensky will start to turn to Europe (not the US) and say: “You see? Russia can be defeated because if I managed to invade kilometers of Russian territory with a few soldiers, how much more could you do using your soldiers and means? I have shown you that it can be done. You have the opportunity to defeat Europe’s enemy. Do it.” In Washington, Biden will watch knowing that in six months’ time the Russian problem will be handled by someone else. Europe, now tied to Kiev by bilateral security agreements and to Brussels, with the commitments made to Kiev and the “support for Ukraine as long as necessary”, will find it very difficult if not impossible to send Zelensky to hell. The new EU foreign minister, Estonian Kallas, will announce that the time for irrevocable decisions has come.
The Poles, Estonians or Latvians, under the shield of Article 5 of NATO, will be the first to follow the new “defensive” logic on Russian territory, to “defend” not only Ukraine but also all of Europe. Thus, for the weak European countries, the new era announced by von der Leyen will open: the age of war.
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