Rome, 10 August (Adnkronos) – Ukraine attacks Russia with a surprise offensive. Is the war changing? What can Kiev’s strategy lead to? “The incursion of Ukrainian troops into Russian territory, in the Kursk region, and their penetration for about ten km beyond the internationally recognised borders is a new fact that has taken everyone by surprise, starting with the Russians, whose aim is still to be deciphered in its basic intentions. It is certain that a tactical event of such characteristics has a very limited significance from an operational point of view, a simple flaw in the Russian defence system that will be promptly mended”. Thus to Adnkronos General Leonardo Tricarico, former Chief of Staff of the Air Force and current president of the Icsa Foundation, commenting on the advance of the Ukrainian army towards the Kursk nuclear power plant.
“It is therefore unlikely to think of a shift in the military balance which therefore continues to maintain the characteristics, now consolidated since the initial phases of the Russian invasion, of a war of position and attrition, a stalemate which, if it were to continue, will result in limited Russian territorial progress in the face of enormous commitment and losses, including human losses. The dividend that Zelensky can cash in from a political point of view, and from the public, international and internal perception on both the Russian and Ukrainian fronts, is different – he continues – It is the first time that regular Ukrainian troops invade Russian territory and cash in on a limited but very evident military success. The setback is there for all to see even if its effects will be quickly reabsorbed, so much so that it seems unreasonable that Zelensky could take advantage of it at a hypothetical future negotiating table. What happened in the most recent Ukrainian offensive operations in which high-paying and highly significant military targets were hit, such as a tactical fighter air base and some radar installations and Russian air defense missiles”.
“Operations that, at least according to media sources, appeared ‘clean’ and precise, almost as if the Ukrainians were using the precision launch weaponry supplied by the West and perhaps even the first operational F16s in a professionally correct manner – adds the general – This could indeed constitute a significant strengthening of Ukrainian military capabilities even if the quantity of systems is far from having reached the critical mass necessary to establish new balances. Even the types of targets hit suggest that, better late than never, the progressive neutralization of the air forces and defense has been placed in the right priority, and the need to concentrate all available energies on them”.
“Coming from a rather long period of passivity or rather of defensive attitude, I believe that with the Kiev offensive they wanted to send Moscow the message ‘we can still hurt you a lot’. A way to suggest that perhaps it really is time to sit down at a table, but with serious proposals, not unacceptable like those that Moscow has made up to now”, General Vincenzo Camporini, former Chief of Defence Staff, told Adnkronos, commenting on the Ukrainian army’s advance towards the Kursk nuclear power plant. “What is impressive – he continues – is the Russians’ unpreparedness, as if they had taken for granted that there was no risk and therefore they could easily leave such an important part of the border area unguarded. It is quite surprising that no preventive action was taken”.
Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, however, highlighted the risk of a further distancing of peace. “For once I don’t agree with you,” General Camporini commented, “and it happens very rarely. The Ukrainian offensive is a new fact that could induce some rethinking, some reflection on the Russian side, perhaps not immediately but certainly at this point the awareness of being vulnerable, something that up to now seems not to have been in the minds of Putin and military planners, could in some way make us reflect on the need to formulate proposals that are not completely unacceptable.”
