“In prison and not in the army“, they shouted in front of the base as some of them they clashed with the police officersIt happened in front of the conscription office at the base Tel Hashomerin Israel, where yesterday morning approximately 300 Haredi Jews demonstrated to protest against their call-up for military service. About 600 were called up yesterday and another 500 are expected today, after orders to Army recruitmentfrom which they have been exempted by convention since 1948. A scene that has been repeated several times in recent months and which highlights a fracture which in the Jewish state is becoming ever deeper and more evident, that between the secular part of the company and the ultra-orthodox community.
There demographic composition of Israel’s population has changed very quickly. Today the secular jewish women have on average 2.47 children each. An enviable fertility rate, especially when compared to that of the major Western countries: 1.9 in France, 1.64 in the United States, 1.56 in the United Kingdom, 1.25 in Italy. But this rate rises to 6.64 for women ultra-orthodox. A high fertility that in recent years has not been a problem thanks to the high growth rates of the secular population and the mass return of people of Jewish origin from all over the world, especially from Europe.
But now things are changing. The flow from Eastern Europe (the area of the former Soviet Union and the former Iron Curtain) is sharply decreasing and the fertility rate of the secular is falling, while that of the ultra-Orthodox has been rising steadily for several years: if in 2009 the haredi were about 750 thousandin 2022 had risen to 1.28 million13.3% of the population. And forecasts indicate that they will continue to increase: in May, according to theCentral Statistical OfficeIsrael had 9.9 million inhabitantswith a growth of 1.9% in one year; by 2023 the haredi will be the 16% of the population and by 2065 it will be ultra-Orthodox 50% of those under 14 (today they are 22%).
Despite the growth rates, each year only 1,200 haredi serve in the military (less than 10%) and about 1,000 of their children do not do so under an exemption dating back to 1948the year of the foundation of the Jewish state, which Israel Defense Forces they no longer seem to be able to afford it. With the military operations at Gaza of which there is no end in sight at the moment, the front is more or less permanently open with the Lebanon and the threat of a regional clash with theIrancalls are growing in the country for the government to end what more and more Israelis see as a privilege. Netanyahu’s government announced that the ruling coalition had failed to reach an agreement to extend the exemption that expired on April 1, since which time the army has begun sending conscription notices to students at religious schools and on June 26 the Supreme Court ruled that the exemption is illegitimate because “there is no legal framework which allows us to distinguish between yeshiva students and those destined for military service.”
The issue is military and economic at the same time. On March 31, presenting the 2023 annual report, the Central Bank He said that the war against Hamas in Gaza is putting an enormous strain on the economy due to the exponential increase in days of service required of both conscripts and reserve soldiers. For this reason, the report states, “expanding the circle of military personnel to include the ultra-Orthodox population (…) will make it possible to respond to the growing defense needswhile moderating the impact on staff and on the economy“. In fact, the haredi are the main recipients of social assistance, subsidies And government allowances since men are devoted to the study of the Torah, only the 55% of them work and in the community the poverty rate is double that of the total population. So they do not contribute significantly to the economy and the increase in population ends up translating into higher expenses on the state budget. An alarm shared by 130 economists Israelis who in February signed a letter stating that “without changes to existing procedures” Israel will lose 6 points of GDP by 2065 while the tax burden will increase: “These processes jeopardize theexistence of the state“.
Over the years, however, their power to Knesset has grown. Nearly one in six MPs in Parliament are from parties representing the community, and the Conservatives have been trying for years to get the exemption enshrined in law. July 25th the party United Torah Judaism has introduced a constitutional bill that defines Torah study as a fundamental value of the State, equating it to military service, effectively exempting the Haredi from the obligation. Likud Netanyahu was quick to downplay the situation, saying the bill “will not be moved forward.” The UTJ responded that the text was based on coalition agreements and “had been prepared at the time by us as part of the overall solution” to the issue of Haredi conscription. And shortly thereafter Yesh Atid Yair Lapid published a photograph of the prime minister’s signature on the coalition pactpromising the Haredi parties that the law will be passed.
